The Global Financial Crisis

[.OrgOwner]

How is the global financial crisis impacting on your life? Are you being forced to cut back in any areas? Is your job / business ok?

[spina220]

Ok here, commercial, industrial water filtration in NYC. Of course I still can not go out and just buy a Desmosedici right now because who knows what can happen but I still feel very lucky. I can tell you this though, if I am living in a cardboard box my 954 and my crf 450 will still be parked outside.

[Paulvfr800]

My house has signed an agreement with the financing company saying that if I can't make my payments for my construction equipment they can have my house..... well...... how is the construction in your area...???? Here we are surviving but my nails are pretty short now... It just might be me and the viffer, the wife can have the house

[.OrgOwner]

It's certainly making me think before spending these days, for the first time in a long time. And I mean spending anything.

[jazzy]

Living here in the Canary Islands we depend on Tourism, more over from the British....Just look at the past exchange rates compared to now...Last year 1pound got you 1.48Euro's, today your 1pound will get you if you're lucky 1.08Euro's.
With such a huge drop I'm lucky to be working in a busy complex. It was estimated that a year last February 2008 3,000 people(of which many were families) left the island and returned to Britain.
It's been a very similar, dismal affair this year also.

[Brett Haven]

One of our biggest competitors just closed a few hundred retail stores at the first part of this year, so that is a huge win for us as a company. Growth in this climate of any kind is something to be excited about. I'm nervous however about spending lots of money right now. Everything is so unpredictable.

I feel for those who are in terrible situations because of the leadership at their place of employment. I feel lucky to work for forward thinking individuals. I have seen things in the past couple years that make me look at a company as a whole from the top down. Ethics, future planning, staffing, spending, everything.

[spina220]

They say people who think like we are talking right now, about not spending money is a big factor, what do you all think?

[.OrgOwner]

Yeah the mindset is everything, oil is down, interest rates are down, house prices are down... We've never had it so good. It's all about confidence, once the herd is spooked it takes them time to settle. I'm very very skeptical about the "stimulus" packages.

[ghbzorro]

The financial crisis has made the commercial banks get stupid and demand higher basis points over LIBOR than they deserve, which has made the cost of financing "my" project very high. Consequently the IRR of the project has become very low. If we can't make the project happen then I will be on the street. And in this climate I could be between assignements for a long time. Not too nice at my age!

[spina220]

Of course, I do also. Maybe it would be better off to let the economy just hit rock bottom so it can rebuild again , maybe using more bubble gum to keep the boat from sinking will just drag it out longer. The money for these "stimulus" packages has to come from somewhere, like higher taxes on everything.

[.OrgOwner]

That is the point, at some stage the money has to be paid back and if it just delays the inevitable economic enema that is needed then it's just going to cause longer term pain. Would be smarter to spend the money in areas that will create / keep jobs ? Unemployment is the real enemy here, once you have masses of unemployment your fxxxxd.

[spina220]

What about the brilliant idea of bailing out banks? giving them millions of dollars, and they still do not want to lend any money to any small business or anyone for that matter. I can understand being more aware of the people you lend to, but how can you have a real estate market if it is almost impossible to get a mortgage?

[imcamod81]

My job for the time being is secure. I work in municipal government and we are spending money like a blind queer at a weenie roast. (I felt pretty confident that I wouldn't offend to many blind people on a motorcycle site, but who knows, so remember it is just a joke) We have construction projects that seem to be advancing, even though we did not get any "Stimulus" monies as of yet.

The city council is concerned and they are pretending to be conservative, but they are addicted to spending. I think that is the real problem with all levels of government. They have to spend money on the voters to get re-elected. So that is what they do, spend, spend, spend.

In the face of declining revenues most companies would cut back, but not the government. It is spend, spend, spend!

The really big problem is the massive screwing that we are all going to get in just a few years time. The plan in the budget is to harvest $76 billion from carbon cap and trade tax auctions in 2012. They plan to harvest $676 billion in the years of 2012 to 2018. That nearly matches the "Stimulus Package" cost. hmmmm

That money is going to come from increased electric rates. Add to this the cost of all the wind energy and your rates are going to triple no matter how well it is managed. The wind energy looks good on paper, but when the wind isn't blowing, people still need power. To insure reliability you need a second source. So right there you have doubled the cost of electricity in the future.

That is an economy killer if there ever was one. Some companies spend more on power than they do on employment, so jobs will fall fast. I don't think we have seen the tip of the iceberg if they pass some of this crap!!!

OBTW, I run a municipal electric with generation. So my bacon is in the fire.

[spina220]

good joke.

[TheOne11]

Well.... sorry to say.... This is what I do (and I made money in all this mess by shorting WAMU).... This will last another 24 months... and get worse... we will see double digit inflation and unemployment

[.OrgOwner]

The whole carbon tax thing smells. When the oil runs out they need a new cash cow, the carbon tax is perfect and we will never be able to escape it.

[Brett Haven]

Originally Posted by spina220 What about the brilliant idea of bailing out banks? giving them millions of dollars, and they still do not want to lend any money to any small business or anyone for that matter. I can understand being more aware of the people you lend to, but how can you have a real estate market if it is almost impossible to get a mortgage?

The Bank Bailout will be something our children will laugh about in public but curse us for it in the back of their minds. It was a terrible idea that somehow got through. It will only prolong the inevitable.


.OrgOwner...... yes the Carbon Tax smells. And you're right, we will never escape it. Our entire government system is corrupt right now, in my opinion. Hopefully someone with balls will one day make it to washington and clean house.

[LoopyLee]

When I had to go to the job centre this morning I had a sneaky look at the information board and so far this week over 500 people have signed on as unemployed in just our town!!! That doesn't include youngsters and single mums signing on for benefits, so the actual total of people losing their jobs here will be higher than that.

The job centre was packed, like it always seems to be at the moment..

[dr256]

My Wife lost her jobs a couple of weeks ago so its definitely time to tighten the belt. So sandwiches to work, no more nights out with the boys, no meals out with the wife and boy no more this, no more that. We were going to stop for Pizza on the way home the other night then decided to stop at the supermarket and buy one and cook it at home instead! And its looks like Dads little jaunts to the races will be severely curtailed this year..

I work in marketing and already know over ten people that have lost their jobs recently. That said my office is pretty busy for the moment although my clients are cutting budgets to unrealistic levels. For example one clients has slashed fees in half, so we are having to do extra work to recoup.

Strange thing is we just spent the weekend looking at houses as we've decided to move.
So yes we all doomed! Yes life still goes on!

[.OrgOwner]

It's not exactly a bad time to be looking at houses, although selling in this market would be a bad move. Plenty of people are looking around for home bargains right now.

[spina220]

Funny you should say that I bought a house about a year ago right before the banks stopped giving mortgages, got lucky.

[dr256]

Originally Posted by .OrgOwner It's not exactly a bad time to be looking at houses, although selling in this market would be a bad move. Plenty of people are looking around for home bargains right now.

Not necessarily a bad time to sell, so long as you are also buying!
Currently I'm going to get 20-30k less than I would have a year ago.
But I'm also going to buy at 20 - 30k less than a year ago.

Given that I'm looking at my house as a home / long term investment, over the course of my remaining 18 years of mortgage, I won't really be losing out.

Also, I'm looking at moving from a fairly central London location to a more suburban one (I'm moving to get nearer to better schools), so have a slight advantage in so far as, house prices have dropped less in my area than the areas I'm looking at moving to.
So from initial research, I'll be getting an extra bedroom and a garage for my money.

[dr256]

Anyone think I'm completely nuts?
Put the house on the market on Saturday - first viewing today (tuesday)

Must admit got a little bit of the colly-wobbles!

[ghbzorro]

Originally Posted by dr256 Anyone think I'm completely nuts? Put the house on the market on Saturday - first viewing today (tuesday)

Maybe nuts, but not because of this issue

As long as you don't put yourself in the unenviable/stupid position of buying the new place first and then trying to sell the old one later, you'll be fine. Also, you need to be ready not to be insulted by people when they low ball their offers. At least you have somebody looking at your place.

We sold our empty nest last year, just as pricing started to soften. I figure prices should get close to rock bottom in about a year, so might consider re-entering the market at that time.