[luvtolean]

...so we all know the lack of decline (though no real growth) has been fostered by artificially low interest rates which have led to building and home purchase/refinance keeping our weak economy looking OK. Of course yesterday Greenspan said rates will climb.

My Dad is (was) working with a broker to refinance his house. 1 week ago they were quoted 6.x %. A couple things were finished up and he tried to pull the trigger yesterday. Oops, sorry sir, the interest rates have gone up, now it's 8.x%. No refinance for Pops...

Then today, I goto Shell to get some diesel for my truck. $2.459 per gallon. Some alarmists are saying $4/gallon this summer, most say at least $3.

UPS is now charging an energy surcharge on some shipments.

Interest rates on the rise, energy skyrocketing....we are going back into a recession, and if it happens soon, Bush will lose office.

[ND4SPD]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

UPS is now charging an energy surcharge on some shipments.

They have been doing this. I worked for an ecommerce company a couple years ago and every single bill we got for the pickups had a "fuel surcharge" on it

[BDA116]

I know the Kali economy is very different than the nation's as a whole, but I don't understand where you're coming from exactly.
The national average for a 30 year fixed is still at 5.8%, and even a quick look at S.F.'s averages, they are only a tenth off. Your dad could still get a good rate if he looked elsewhere.
Gas? yeah, gas isn't in a good spot right now. There are many reasons for it, all of which could be changed but won't in the immediate future. That said, it's still a far cry from the highest ever when adjusted for inflation.
Interest rates really aren't much higher than they have been. Greenspan hinted that they needed to go up eventually the other day, causing a market selloff, but has backed off that and has hinted that it won't happen until the end of the year, causing investors to buy back into the market today.
Greeny also talked about how strong the economy is responding right now, that the deflation risk is practicaly nonexistent and how the job outlook is very bright.
Earnings reports are in, and are extremely positive.
Jobless benefit claims still on the overall decline, jobs still being made on a monthly basis.
According to most economists, the outlook is fantastic.
Of course, geographically it is different for some, gas prices are much higher 700 miles to the west of me and that sucks for sure.
But seriously, interest rates really aren't that bad. Have your dad shop around and he should easily get a refi for under 6% still.
YMMV, though.

[luvtolean]

Dad lives out of state actually, TX to be more precise. He told me diesel is $1.6x there. Though our prices on fuel are even more crazy than elsewhere due to our different fuel formulations, the trend is still there. Besides, money people are speculators, just like when OPEC talks of raising oil prices, the prices go up at the pump immediately, though the cost of the fuel in the tanks from yesterday hasn't changed.

We'll see, I claim the economy is going to fall. The tax cut and war is not the proper way to do long term business and it will effect our credit rating globally. To me it looks like Greenspan is recognizing this.

My statement wasn't specifically anti-Bush (other than I think his economic policy is woefully shortsighted) but I think this coming election will be decided on things like consumer confidence and NASDAQ and DOW averages since both of them are relative losers politically.

[BDA116]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

I think this coming election will be decided on things like consumer confidence and NASDAQ and DOW averages since both of them are relative losers politically.

I hope so, as consumer confidence is up as are the Dow and NASDAQ composites. The Dow can't really jump a whole ton higher, but it will stay high. The NASDAQ could move quite a bit higher this summer, though, as tech buying is up and the outlook is for an even more upwards trend.
Also, remember that the Dow and NASDAQ love Republicans. They always trend higher on positive news from the right.
I still wholeheartedly disagree that the economy is anywhere near declining, though.
Again, most economic experts are predicting a continued rise, with some saying this year will the best in the last 20.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[luvtolean]

Believe me BDA, I couldn't hope you were more right about the market.

I take Bush like I do a tetnus shot, it's a painful thing, but something you have to endure so you don't get a spread of infection (like I feel we could under Kerry)

A friend and I came to the conclusion the real election is in 2008 anyway.

[luvtolean]

Interest rates on mortgages are definately going up without a Fed increase, but they claim it's because the economy is looking good:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...rtgage_rates_1

[figment]

I would not use fuel prices to indicate economic conditions....the hotter the economy, the more fuel is used, the higher the price. Conversely, the higher the price of fuel, the more things cost. The more things cost, the less people can buy...it gets complicated I tell ya!

[luvtolean]

Originally Posted by figment

I would not use fuel prices to indicate economic conditions....the hotter the economy, the more fuel is used, the higher the price. Conversely, the higher the price of fuel, the more things cost. The more things cost, the less people can buy...it gets complicated I tell ya!

We were debating this the other day at lunch and I do not believe supply and demand economic theory applies to gasoline.

I don't use the price of gas as an indicator for the economy, but I do claim that high energy costs are like "parasitic drag" to the economy and will hurt it.

The other day the consumer confidence was released as down for April too.

[jh125486]

rates in my area are still 5.x% on 15yr fixed

and foruntately gas prices stopped being an indicator of the economy quite a while ago.... if gas prices following inflation we'd be paying ~$11 a gallon. Which would still be less than Starbucks though.

[luvtolean]

I guess you missed my last post but are you saying rising gas prices don't effect the economy?