Job growth

ND4SPD · 11-05-2004, 10:30 AM

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/05/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

BDA116 · 11-05-2004, 10:39 AM

Don't confuse the neolibs with the truth, ND. It doesn't work.
More Americans are working today than at any point in history, home ownership and personal wealth are at higher levels than ever before, also.
But the neolib extremists just can't come to grips with the truth.

luvtolean · 11-05-2004, 11:25 AM

The bubble has already burst, 2005 is on it's way down. At least from where I'm sittin'.

Heavy-Dee · 11-05-2004, 11:27 AM

Job market blows here in Cleveland. We've been trying to hire someone for almost a year and can't find anyone.

Check out this link. Of particular interest is the future job growth.

I gotta get the phuck out of here....

HD

ND4SPD · 11-05-2004, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heavy-Dee

Job market blows here in Cleveland. We've been trying to hire someone for almost a year and can't find anyone.

HD

That's not necessarily due to the job market though. More like too many no talent ass clowns in the industry. My boss is going through the same thing. He's been trying to find someone else for a few months and he had several people walk in dressed in jeans, tennis shoes, not cleanly shaved, etc.

ND4SPD · 11-05-2004, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heavy-Dee

Check out this link. Of particular interest is the future job growth.

HD

I don't know how recent that is, sales tax has been 8% for well over a year now, no?

Heavy-Dee · 11-05-2004, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ND4SPD

I don't know how recent that is, sales tax has been 8% for well over a year now, no?

Yea, but the numbers are a guidline.

HD

BDA116 · 11-05-2004, 12:55 PM

Compare Provo, UT and Cleveland, OH.
I'm not so sure where they get the income numbers, but like you said they are a guideline.

sheepofblue · 11-05-2004, 1:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ND4SPD

That's not necessarily due to the job market though. More like too many no talent ass clowns in the industry. My boss is going through the same thing. He's been trying to find someone else for a few months and he had several people walk in dressed in jeans, tennis shoes, not cleanly shaved, etc.

Sandles and jeans today

But yes I agree that for an interview you should exceed what you expect to work in. Also the tech bubble brought an unbelievable amount of get rich quick know nothings in, that still expect outrageous salaries for doing HTML.

SuperDave · 11-05-2004, 1:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDA116

Don't confuse the neolibs with the truth, ND. It doesn't work.
More Americans are working today than at any point in history, home ownership and personal wealth are at higher levels than ever before, also.
But the neolib extremists just can't come to grips with the truth.

Maybe more jobs at Walmart today. Factory jobs have been lost, steel jobs, auto, etc. More and more are being outsourced. Even IT/Network service support is more and more via internet/VPN from other countries. It's a trend that's getting worse and worse with technology replacing factory workers, lower manufacturing cost by relocating to foreign countries, and on and on and on. Enhancing our children's school/education system isn't the real solution, it's creating technologies that won't eventually be outsourced right back out of our country (less overhead, more profit).

I don't know about your area but salaries are still frozen now with the attitude of be thankful you at least have a job, or take another one for far less money. Good luck compensating for your health care cost.

Home ownership? Do you mean the new mortgage debts to the banks because of the low interest rate period? They're not "owning" anything, the banks own them. It's just a lower interest rate on a huge debt.

Personal wealth? For who? I'm just scraping by to pay the mortgage and bills, and I don't foresee huge pay raises anytime soon. I know health care cost will never go back down, only up. Just about everything in our economy that has risen in cost will either stay there or raise even more. You'll never see the cost actually go back down. Maybe there are more millionaires than ever, but that's still a very small percentage of the public working force.

johnnycrash · 11-05-2004, 2:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperDave

More and more are being outsourced. Even IT/Network service support is more and more via internet/VPN from other countries. It's a trend that's getting worse and worse with technology replacing factory workers, lower manufacturing cost by relocating to foreign countries, and on and on and on. Enhancing our children's school/education system isn't the real solution, it's creating technologies that won't eventually be outsourced right back out of our country (less overhead, more profit).

The outsourcing of high tech jobs is happening right now. I work for a huge corporation with over 100,000 employees. They have just opened a huge engineering design complex in India, with about 1,000 engineers - all with at least a Masters (from US universities). They are now slowly moving all new design work over there.

They pay them less than $4k per year. IMO that's where my job will be sometime in the next few years.

Oh well, there's always Wal-Mart.

SuperDave · 11-05-2004, 3:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnycrash

They pay them less than $4k per year. IMO that's where my job will be sometime in the next few years.

Oh well, there's always Wal-Mart.

Or we could kick the illegal immigrants back out and take over their landscaping businesses?

Seriously though, it's kind of frightening that as the jobs become fewer, there will be more and more applicants desperate for work - thus lowering and lowering what an employer will have to pay.

Then again, maybe the cycle will continue with India. They'll start demanding more and more money to where their jobs are outsourced back to us!

nedro · 11-05-2004, 3:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luvtolean

The bubble has already burst, 2005 is on it's way down. At least from where I'm sittin'.

You keep saying that, but I don't see it. My convention center is now up to almost pre 2000 booking and "food and beverage" is also up to those numbers (which are our indicators of just how good a shape these companies are in).

Heavy-Dee · 11-05-2004, 5:01 PM

Guys. The IT jobs that are going overseas are not the ones that require real innovation. Tasks/projects that require real thinking require people that are attached to the project and the company. If you are truly good, you will always have a job in the states. If you don't want to think/learn, and you just want someone to pass specs under your closet door and you code them, count your days. Because those types of tasks, IMO, are not what seperates one company from another. And the ability to code those types of solutions, is not what justifies a high salary.

IOW, just b/c you can spell HTML doesn't mean you can keep your job.

HD

luvtolean · 11-05-2004, 5:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nedro

You keep saying that, but I don't see it. My convention center is now up to almost pre 2000 booking and "food and beverage" is also up to those numbers (which are our indicators of just how good a shape these companies are in).

We'll see what you're saying this time next year.

Before I was talking about property which I consider to be different, longer term situation.

I happen to know what semiconductors are being booked at my company.

Which means I have a pretty good idea how many computers, phones and pretty much any device that uses electricity are being forecasted to be built next year. And we are certainly not hiring anyone...

nedro · 11-05-2004, 5:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luvtolean

We'll see what you're saying this time next year.

Before I was talking about property which I consider to be different.

I happen to know what semiconductors are being booked at my company.

Which means I have a pretty good idea how many computers, phones and pretty much any device that uses electricity are being forecasted to be built next year. And we are certainly not hiring anyone...

So was I...before.
Now I am specifically talking about the high tech sector. And yes, we will see.

luvtolean · 11-05-2004, 5:37 PM

You're on the trailing edge of the sector spending. I'm on the leading. This makes the difference.

The bubble I refer to above, was the boom of 2004 which was a great year.

nedro · 11-05-2004, 5:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luvtolean

You're on the trailing edge of the sector spending. I'm on the leading. This makes the difference.

The bubble I refer to above, was the boom of 2004 which was a great year.

I simply do not agree.
We will see.

oldfogey · 11-08-2004, 10:42 AM

From a financial services / stockmarket background, the leading indicators for the US indicate a sharp slowdown over the next six months with a steady recovery thereafter. Part of this is tech (tax breaks for investment that come to an end in December) and part is the ebbing of new sources of growth (China, higher interest rates, spending having grown faster than income). No disasters in the forecast, but certainly more risks that things might go worse than opportunities for them to go much better.

luvtolean · 11-08-2004, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldfogey

From a financial services / stockmarket background, the leading indicators for the US indicate a sharp slowdown over the next six months with a steady recovery thereafter. Part of this is tech (tax breaks for investment that come to an end in December) and part is the ebbing of new sources of growth (China, higher interest rates, spending having grown faster than income). No disasters in the forecast, but certainly more risks that things might go worse than opportunities for them to go much better.

Exactly what I see. I'm in tech and we have to take mandatory time off this quarter.

It doesn't look like 2002, but 2005 definately is not going to start nearly as well as 2004.

These estimates are a year off basically. And I'm sure 2004 did show job growth.

luvtolean · 12-08-2004, 2:08 PM

It looks like UCLA economists even liked my choice of words (about the housing bubble).

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...laforecastsays

deez · 12-08-2004, 2:23 PM

I'm starting to see positions come back in my sector, it's slowly heating back up. Many of the positions are contract, but pay well. I know where the cities are, that are going to be hotbeds of activity next year, I'm glad I've spent the time to figure that much out. There will be good work available for those who are mobile. I'm starting to understand that you really need to look at where you live, and evaluate your job sector, and try to forecast what it will be like over the next 10 years. Certain areas, like Seattle, look piss poor over the next 10 years.