Will France vote Oui or Non on EU Treaty?

Baketech · 05-20-2005, 12:47 PM

Anyone care to speculate if France will vote yes or no?

EU Treaty Vote

Pete · 05-20-2005, 2:04 PM

Based on my speculation that both Denmark and Britain will vote "no," I really don't see where France's vote matters. The constitution will die. Just my

Pete · 05-20-2005, 2:05 PM

But I guess I should wait to hear what Cowboy1600 has to say, since he knows everything about world politics.

Kuss929 · 05-20-2005, 2:10 PM

Poll found 53% No and 47% yes with 19% undecided.
Sounds like they got gp929's posts on going above and beyond the redline.

Baketech · 05-20-2005, 2:32 PM

How is France going to be the EU center of gravity if they can't even ratify within their own borders....

luvtolean · 05-20-2005, 2:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kuss929

Poll found 53% No and 47% yes with 19% undecided.
Sounds like they got gp929's posts on going above and beyond the redline.

I'd say it will come down to the wire in France, nobody knows. It is a very interesting event.

sheepofblue · 05-20-2005, 3:04 PM

I predict they will surrender.

BDA116 · 05-20-2005, 3:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheepofblue

I predict they will surrender.

I'd like to see them vote no, and have the EU fail. But I think they will vote yes because they want to be the powerhouse of the socialist EU, and having another founding country vote no will give them something else to bitch about.
Either way it doesn't matter, they'll be under German control in another few years when Germany wants them again and they give in again.

However, I am with "Pete" in that I need to see the facts from one of the two omniscients of world politics.

Baketech · 05-20-2005, 4:32 PM

Combine Chirac's Anti-American rhetoric with some plain old-fashioned ballot box fraud, and I predict a 58% Yes vote....

dB · 05-20-2005, 6:04 PM

I would expect the polls to be about as accurate as the Bush and Blair re-election polls.

Imagine Chirac being considered center-right.

rocket · 05-20-2005, 7:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheepofblue

I predict they will surrender.

Bacchus · 05-20-2005, 10:41 PM

I'm with dB! On both counts...

< - - - -

See what you started Pete?!

dB · 05-21-2005, 11:15 AM

Say Bacchus, that's a very nice grackle you've got there.

sheepofblue · 05-22-2005, 9:46 AM

Baaa Grack!

Baketech · 05-24-2005, 12:27 PM

Sounds like the Dutch aren't enamored either...

oldfogey · 05-26-2005, 9:54 AM

Just back from a few days in the Netherlands with a pan-European group. Looks like both France and the Netherlands will vote no, preventing us Brits from having the opportunity to vote no to a pro-ratification campaign led by President Blair.

None of these votes have anything to do with the constitution, its merits or faults. The Dutch and French just want to vote no to tell their politicians the economy is bad. The Germans just did that in North Rhine Westphalia, leading the Chancellor to offer an early national election. The guess is no current governing party in the Euro zone will get re-elected until the economy improves.

aussie_929 · 05-28-2005, 9:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldfogey

Just back from a few days in the Netherlands with a pan-European group. Looks like both France and the Netherlands will vote no, preventing us Brits from having the opportunity to vote no to a pro-ratification campaign led by President Blair.

hrrmm I always thought that Blair was a "Prime Minister"......

nomad · 05-29-2005, 3:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussie_929

hrrmm I always thought that Blair was a "Prime Minister"......

I was wondering if that was an accidental slip or a very glib one.

I think it was pretty clever.

Baketech · 05-29-2005, 10:34 PM

Looks like they voted "Non"......

bwhip · 05-29-2005, 11:40 PM

I think they want to secede from the world...

oldfogey · 05-31-2005, 10:14 AM

I think the clear "non" vote says many different, perhaps contradictory things. Different groups voted for differing reasons. Poor economy, unpopular government, an instinctive dislike for free market economics, fear of Turkish entry to the EU. Chirac is now politically dead, just like Schroeder, but they'll have a strong influence over what happens next within the EU.

Expect a row between pro-free market countries and Italy / France under Blair's chairmanship, plus severe political pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates.

"President" Blair was both a comment on his leadership style and the position he will have as the rotating leadership of the EU moves to the UK for the next six months. He'd had loved to become the first President of Europe if the new constitution had been ratified.

nomad · 05-31-2005, 10:22 AM

I really haven't followed this news topic as much as I wish. On the plane yesterday, the guy beside me made the comment that the French voted against the constitution more as a statement against Chirac than one against the proposed constitution.

I'm not claiming that as my view, just passing it on for consideration.

My question is can a unified Europe work? They have spent centuries at war and the countries are very distinct/different. Would a unified Europe succeed?

oldfogey · 05-31-2005, 10:38 AM

I think we're trying to work out what that word "unified" means at the moment.

PS Pan-European tax revenue for the EU is just over 1% of GNP at the moment, so not a lot.