[Purpdust]

So with these intercepts, do they just send one or many Cause if they send just one that is 75% why not send 10? How many do you have to send to get it to 99.9%

[luvtolean]

If you had a 50-50 chance of hitting with every anti-missile fired, it would take 10 anti-missiles fired at the same incoming target to get a 99.9% chance of hitting it.

And for a anti-missile 75% likely to hit, you'd need about 5 for a 99.9% chance of destroying the ICBM.
And for a anti-missile 25% likely to hit, you'd need about 20 for a 99.9% chance.

[sheepofblue]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

If you had a 50-50 chance of hitting with every anti-missile fired, it would take 10 anti-missiles fired at the same incoming target to get a 99.9% chance of hitting it.

Theoretically with statistics yes. However the improvement would be dependant on what the cause of the 50% probability was. If for instance only 50% lit the improvement would match theory. If it was induced by external factors such as weather it would not.

[sheepofblue]

Originally Posted by Purpdust

So with these intercepts, do they just send one or many Cause if they send just one that is 75% why not send 10? How many do you have to send to get it to 99.9%

... and spend more with people on what it costs now? The reality is weapons cost $$$ and there is a limited number available. Also there is other programs that are useful arguing for more $$$ also.

[luvtolean]

That is a very rough analysis using basic binomial distribution stats and the possibly bad assumption that the 50/50 holds true for every shot.

But if each missile truly has 50/50 odds, why does it matter what causes each missile to have a 50/50 chance?

I'd also like to point out, that what this really means, is it'd take 10 anti missiles for each ICBM fired at you to make sure you stopped 999 in 1000.

So even with 10 anti missiles fired at each ICBM, one in a thousand will still get through.

Again, very simplified stats...since that's all I know.

[SomeStrangeGuy]

I'm going to tell the boys to top mine off just in case.

Finally a damn thread where this is semi-related

[tuffy6969]

Originally Posted by Purpdust

THis may be to simplistic of an approach but if we can have them why/who are we to say they can not

I agree - however - we don't threaten every country in NATO with "nuclear fire from the heavens" or whatever bull sh** translation they (the North Koreans)try to use. They keep spewing this sh** that the missiles are to prevent an "unprovoked U.S. attack" on their country. What the hell is wrong with them. Honestly - wouldn't you think the same deterrent used by the United States on the former Soviet Union which was "mutual destruction" would work for North Korea? If they tried to fire a nuclear missile at the United States or it's allies - it's over for North Korea. I mean - the Soviets had THOUSANDS of missiles - the North Koreans MIGHT have...3 or 4. It all points to the fact that their dictator and slaughterer extraordinare (Mr. Kim Jong Il) - is crazy.

[sheepofblue]

Originally Posted by tuffy6969

I agree - however - we don't threaten every country in NATO with "nuclear fire from the heavens" or whatever bull sh** translation they (the North Koreans)try to use. They keep spewing this sh** that the missiles are to prevent an "unprovoked U.S. attack" on their country. What the hell is wrong with them. Honestly - wouldn't you think the same deterrent used by the United States on the former Soviet Union which was "mutual destruction" would work for North Korea? If they tried to fire a nuclear missile at the United States or it's allies - it's over for North Korea. I mean - the Soviets had THOUSANDS of missiles - the North Koreans MIGHT have...3 or 4. It all points to the fact that their dictator and slaughterer extraordinare (Mr. Kim Jong Il) - is crazy.

Mutual destruction only works with sane people. Something lacking in the leadership of North Korea and Iran. It worked with Russia because the loons were held in check by the majority of sane people (as with us). In that sense communism is safer than a dictatorship (at least for non-citizens)

[luvtolean]

I wouldn't take the tack these guys are insane.

They just have far different motives/culture than most westerners do.

[luvtolean]

BTW, here's an update.

U.S. weighs shootdown of N. Korea missile - Yahoo! News

[Mojave954]

They are only going to get one shot so they better make it count. Then we will just have to call in uncle MIRV......

[tuffy6969]

Originally Posted by Mojave954

They are only going to get one shot so they better make it count. Then we will just have to call in uncle MIRV......

Yeah - Uncle "MIRV" can sure give you a great dose of shut the fu** up!!! Just what the North Koreans need.

[tuffy6969]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

I wouldn't take the tack these guys are insane.

They just have far different motives/culture than most westerners do.

No....they are indeed insane. Any FOOL threatening the super power of the world with a couple of low-yield nukes is insane. He doesn't have his people's livelihood in mind now does he. Remember - he (Kim Jung Il II) called our President a "cowboy". That cowboy might just pull out the BIG guns if they threaten or indeed fire a nuke at us. In fact, I guarantee a "special package" response if they are that stupid.

[Custom900]

I say we just need to go ahead and show them what a real nuclear bomb can do. Then in a few decades the N. Koreans can rebuild and rethink the decision.

[luvtolean]

Tuffy. Slow down. I understand what you are saying. But Jong Il has much to gain from this. You need to think a bit differently than "mine is bigger than yours", aka MAD, here.

He might be out for money like we gave them last time. He might be out for "face", which if you don't know anything about, you might want to study. (And Asians take it far more seriously than Americans) He might be doing it for pride, which does go along with face, but is different in ways. (would you know Il's name if he didn't periodically do stuff like this?) In that miserable little shithole he's created, getting the US wound up is about all he can point to as a success.

He knows he can rattle the hell out of his saber, but as long as he doesn't shoot a nuke at us, we won't attack him. And if you haven't been paying attention, "America-hating" has been the ticket to many freely elected leaders in various continents across the globe, it's politically a good thing to do in some places...

[tuffy6969]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

Tuffy. Slow down. I understand what you are saying. But Jong Il has much to gain from this. You need to think a bit differently than "mine is bigger than yours", aka MAD, here.

He might be out for money like we gave them last time. He might be out for "face", which if you don't know anything about, you might want to study. (And Asians take it far more seriously than Americans) He might be doing it for pride, which does go along with face, but is different in ways. (would you know Il's name if he didn't periodically do stuff like this?) In that miserable little shithole he's created, getting the US wound up is about all he can point to as a success.

He knows he can rattle the hell out of his saber, but as long as he doesn't shoot a nuke at us, we won't attack him. And if you haven't been paying attention, "America-hating" has been the ticket to many freely elected leaders in various continents across the globe, it's politically a good thing to do in some places...

I totally agree with you. Yes - i do understand what you mean by "face". It's a pride thing with a lot of these thugs. Kim Jung Il is no different than Bin Laden. I think of them as the little fly buzzin around a person's head. Finally....he get's swatted.

You are also right in that as long as he keeps his missile away from us, he's safe. God help him if he doesn't.

[luvtolean]

If he somehow detonates a nuke on US soil, I hope even God doesn't help the little ****er as he's vaporized.

[navydevildoc]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

If he somehow detonates a nuke on US soil, I hope even God doesn't help the little ****er as he's vaporized.

Oh, I am sure there is more than one SSBN right off the coast ready to facilitate that arragement if needed. Maybe even a B-2 or two.

[sheepofblue]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

I wouldn't take the tack these guys are insane.

They just have far different motives/culture than most westerners do.

OK maybe insane is not the word but the point is still the same. In North Korea you have a single person with little respect for his people able to make the decision with little to no interference. That was not the case in Russia. In Iran I stick by my assessment.

[seamus]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

He might be out for money like we gave them last time. He might be out for "face", which if you don't know anything about, you might want to study. (And Asians take it far more seriously than Americans) He might be doing it for pride, which does go along with face, but is different in ways. (would you know Il's name if he didn't periodically do stuff like this?) In that miserable little shithole he's created, getting the US wound up is about all he can point to as a success.

He knows he can rattle the hell out of his saber, but as long as he doesn't shoot a nuke at us, we won't attack him. And if you haven't been paying attention, "America-hating" has been the ticket to many freely elected leaders in various continents across the globe, it's politically a good thing to do in some places...

If you go back through the last 15-20 years, the NK leaders learned and practiced the art of talking tough. They know South Korea doesn't want war (or they would have rolled right over them by now). They also know that we aren't really interested in war with them for more political reasons.

They also know our hot buttons. Talk about the US/SK prep for war, talk nukes, talk about "aggressions". The world looks their way and they get food, oil, and money in place of their "nuclear ambitions". It's already been proven that communism doesn't work. Not because it's a bad system, but because bad people always end up in charge. Every winter, thousands of NK people die from lack of food and shelter. By creating a stir, they not only get stuff from other countries, but within NK they blame US/SK aggression for their lack of ability to support their people and stay in power.

[SuperDave]

Originally Posted by seamus

The world looks their way and they get food, oil, and money in place of their "nuclear ambitions".

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Yahoo article

The last time the Pentagon registered a successful test in intercepting a mock warhead in flight was in October 2002. Since then there have been three unsuccessful attempted intercepts, mostly recently in February 2005.

I remember a History Channel or Discovery special on this. The amount of money spent so far is crazy. I can't remember how many billions of dollars, but it was not very impressive when they missed the target EVERY time. And, if I remember correctly, the Oct 2002 "succesfull test" was rigged. Something about given the exact coordinates and even slowing the target, something like that, I'll have to search. But they were basically saying, "we'll take anything at this point" to justify the program.

Basically they were guessing. Even when given the exact trajectory, coordinates, etc., they still couldn't hit the target. It is a very important project/defense, and I have no problem with the investinment, I just hope they can actually pull it off when needed.

Thank goodness we got Saddam when we did!