[luvtolean]

I just found a very interesting piece of data (on Snopes) from the 04 election, regarding murder rate in the counties won by each candidate:

Gore: 6.5%
Bush: 4.1%

Pretty dramatic difference...why?

[Purpdust]

I guess would be that Urban Voters are usually more open for Change (like Gay Rights, Abortion and less religious) these voters would most likely vote for Gore. The Rural Voters would be more conservative and tend to vote for Bush . Because urban areas have higher murder rates than rural then yes Gore's counties would have higher murder rates

[luvtolean]

Right.

But do people in the areas with higher murder rates want things changed because they're bad, or are things bad because of the "Democrat" mentality of people in those areas?

Chicken or egg?

[Purpdust]

If you assume that those that are on the fringe in the rural areas leave for the Urban because they are shoned, and usually have to live in the less desirable areas because of the cost. Then it woudl not be Democratic policy that creates the unbalance.

An interesting stat would be, The Duration of Residency in the counties. If you found that new residents (both from foriegn and domestic sources) typically vote for the D and live in Urban areas. Established residents vote R and live in Rural areas. You could make further conclutions that people move around are more open minded and vote Democrat but also are more likely to kill someone.



An other question that shold be answered is. What is the ratio of murders between those that voted D or R? and Who killed them?

Maybe just maybe the Rs are trying to kill all the Ds in their home riding

[G-Force Junkie]

Simple, the urban rats vote democratic so they can continue to live off the government and get paid to pump out unwanted children. Oh crap, you baited me into posting in the politics forum...

[luvtolean]

Holy ****, hey man, dial my number, you must not be well.

First a lapse in paranoia, now this?

[seamus]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

I just found a very interesting piece of data (on Snopes) from the 04 election, regarding murder rate in the counties won by each candidate:

Gore: 6.5%
Bush: 4.1%

Pretty dramatic difference...why?

What makes 2.4% a dramatic difference?

Can you post the link to the data? I usually shun statistics since I took two statistics classes in college (one purely mathematical, one for my psych classes). I haven't seen a percentage I believe in since then.

And yes, I do know that two stats classes don't make me an expert.

[Mojave954]

Probably need a bucket here but working with what I got available.

[luvtolean]

Originally Posted by seamus

What makes 2.4% a dramatic difference?

Can you post the link to the data? I usually shun statistics since I took two statistics classes in college (one purely mathematical, one for my psych classes). I haven't seen a percentage I believe in since then.

And yes, I do know that two stats classes don't make me an expert.

Why is that dramatic? That's ~50% more in Kerry's counties. That is huge.

It's from snopes, I looked up an article someone posted (on a different forum) and parts of that were bogus...but these stats came from the analysis at the bottom.

Urban Legends Reference Pages: Politics (The Fall of the Athenian Republic)

[CBRVFR]

OK, so if convicted murderers can't vote, that means that the counties in which Gore won included proportionally fewer felons.. right?




Three kinds of falsehoods:
Lies,
Damnable Lies, &
Statistics.

[luvtolean]

Originally Posted by CBRVFR

OK, so if convicted murderers can't vote, that means that the counties in which Gore won included proportionally fewer felons.. right?




Three kinds of falsehoods:
Lies,
Damnable Lies, &
Statistics.

I still think it's an interesting discussion point though.

[navydevildoc]

I think that it really is just that more Urban areas tend to vote democratically, but also tend to have higher crime rates. When you shove people into close quarters, many of whom live at or below the poverty line, you have problems.

[luvtolean]

So why is it those people vote democrat?

[Tornado bait]

All I can hear is the line from "Oh Brother where art thow"

Is you is, or is you aint my constituents?

[luvtolean]

One of my all time favorites.

[navydevildoc]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

So why is it those people vote democrat?

Technically, the Murderers are not voting, as they are now felons in prison.

[luvtolean]

But are murderers more likely to come out of a certain political leaning?

Besides, I see Teddy still voting, so it doesn't seem to be much of a roadblock to being a Senator.

[navydevildoc]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

But are murderers more likely to come out of a certain political leaning?

Besides, I see Teddy still voting, so it doesn't seem to be much of a roadblock to being a Senator.

He's not a convicted murderer.

[phobiaphobe]

Maybe the high murder counties want a leftist government that will crack down on gun laws.

[BladeRider]

Originally Posted by luvtolean

I just found a very interesting piece of data (on Snopes) from the 04 election, regarding murder rate in the counties won by each candidate:

Gore: 6.5%
Bush: 4.1%

Pretty dramatic difference...why?

Why is this right? I like snopes but where did these details come from? Someone sucessfuly looked up the murder rates for 1000s of counties in the US and compiled them? I have to call Bullshit unless they can prove this with the hard details.

Link to the detailed data of each county please.

[leelover]

Originally Posted by phobiaphobe

Maybe the high murder counties want a leftist government that will crack down on gun laws.

That would make it easier for the felons to do their "job".

[luvtolean]

Originally Posted by BladeRider

Why is this right? I like snopes but where did these details come from? Someone sucessfuly looked up the murder rates for 1000s of counties in the US and compiled them? I have to call Bullshit unless they can prove this with the hard details.

Link to the detailed data of each county please.

That is exactly what they said they did.

5. The county-by-county murder-rate comparison presented in this piece is wrong.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ), in the year 2000 the national murder rate was about 5.5 per 100,000 residents. Homicide data by county for 1999 and 2000 can be downloaded from the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NAJCD), and the counties won by Gore and Bush can be identified using the county-by-county election results made available by CNN. (The NACJD provides not only the number of reported murders for each county, but also the population for each.) The average murder rate in the counties won by Gore vs. the rate in the counties won by Bush can be determined from this data.

By calculating the murder rate for each county and then taking the averages, we find a murder rate (defined as number of murders per 100,000 residents) of about 5.2 for the "average" Gore county and 3.3 for the average Bush county. But since people, rather than counties, commit murders, a more appropriate approach is to calculate the total number of murders in the counties won by each candidate and divide that figure by the total number of residents in those counties. This more appropriate method yields the following average murder rates in counties won by each candidate:


Gore: 6.5
Bush: 4.1

There is a distinct difference between these two numbers, but it is nowhere near as large as the quoted e-mail message states (i.e., 13.2 for Gore vs. 2.1 for Bush). Note that the average of these two figures is 5.3, which, as expected, is very close to the reported national murder rate of 5.5.